Multi-Criteria Decision Making within Energy Networks for Electricity Production in Emerging Markets
Special Symposium - Energy
Invited Session on Energy Issues (S-2)
Keywords: energy networks; complex systems; decision making; optimisation; sustainability
This paper addresses the design and evolution of energy networks to promote the production of electricity in emerging markets, using examples from South Africa as case studies. In particular, attention is given to the expansion of an existing coal-power station network, and to the development of a new bio-energy network using sugar-cane residues as feedstock. Our primary focus is on the decision-making capability of the individual agents which comprise these networks, as well as to the institutional behaviour which evolves within the network over time. The over-arching goal is to improve the sustainability of such networks by exploring their systemic behaviour.
The bio-energy study is used to demonstrate the inclusion of multi-criteria decision making routines within a hybrid agent-based model whose structure is informed by underlying system dynamics. The coal study is used to demonstrate dynamic optimisation of an agent-based model over an extended time period, and informed by real data on infrastructure planning. Some consideration of key uncertainties is covered in both cases.
This work draws together relevant expertise in process modelling, optimisation, and decision making, and, as such, is informed by perspectives from both management and behavioural sciences, particularly with regards to consideration of qualitative features of decisions made by individual agents, such as trust and loyalty.
Some observations are made with respect to the general relevance of this approach to complex societal problems, with which Chemical Engineers are beginning to engage in a meaningful manner, particularly where Sustainable Development is a key driver.
Presented Tuesday 18, 16:00 to 16:30, in session Invited Session on Energy Issues (S-2).
