Sunday Telegraph har en interessant analyse av situasjonen i forbindelse med
Euroavstemningene.
Karsten Johansen
Sunday Telegraph:
Sunday 4 June 2000 Danes poised to strike blow against euro By Julian Coman,
Europe Correspondent, in Copenhagen
DANISH voters are set to deliver a stinging blow to the credibility of the
euro in a referendum that will set the tone for similar votes in Britain and
Sweden.
Opposition to joining the common currency is growing, according to a
startling opinion poll splashed across the front pages of Denmark's
newspapers yesterday. The poll, which showed that 47 per cent of the
population were opposed to joining the currency compared to 43 per cent in
favour, was the first time that those against had outnumbered those in
favour in more than two years.
The No campaign was shown to be gaining support from both left and
right-wing parties ahead of the September vote. A defeat for pro-euro
campaigners would be seen as a disastrous precedent for supporters of the
single currency in Britain, where the Government is committed to calling a
referendum on the euro in the next parliament. The Swedish government has
also said it will call a poll after the Danish referendum.
"The Yes campaign will have to do something very major to turn this around,"
said Karsten Skjalm, a European affairs expert at the Danish foreign policy
institute. "At this stage, it certainly looks like it's going to be a No
vote. A Danish rejection would not in itself be fatal for the euro, but it
could influence the British vote, and if the British vote against the euro
that really will be serious."
When the pro-euro Social Democrat prime minister, Poul Nyrup Rasmussen,
called the September referendum on entry into the single currency in March,
an easy victory for Yes campaigners was expected. Since then, a series of
gaffes in Copenhagen, Brussels and Berlin has turned Danes against monetary
union, which many now believe is only a first step to full political
integration in Europe.
John Iversen, who is in charge of the Social Democratic party's Yes
campaign, admits that the outlook is bleak. He said: "Events elsewhere in
Europe are not helping our case. The speech by the German foreign minister
Joschka Fischer, recommending a federal Europe, was not good for us, and the
European Union's sanctions against Austria are also very unpopular here.
"People see it as unfair aggression against a small state - a small state
like Denmark." In attempting to appease doubters, the Danish government has
only managed to increase the confusion about what voters are really signing
up to. Speaking in Japan last month, Mr Rasmussen suggested that Denmark
could retain the option of withdrawing from the euro after joining. The
Italian president of the European Commission, Romano Prodi, contradicted
him, stating that membership of the euro was "by definition permanent".
After a hasty exchange of phone calls between Brussels and Copenhagen, Mr
Prodi gave a new statement, saying: "From a political point of view Mr
Rasmussen is right, but in the EU's Treaty there are no procedures for going
in and then going out." Soon afterwards, the newspaper Politiken discovered
that Denmark's largest trade union, LO, had decided to keep secret a poll
that revealed that a large majority of its one million members wished to
keep the krone.
Then, two weeks ago, an economic committee of "Wise Men" reported that the
advantages of joining the euro were in any case, "slight and uncertain".
"The Yes campaign is in a complete mess," said Michael Seidelin, political
editor of Politiken. "They know that Danes reject further political
integration. So if they can't make an economic argument for the euro, they
have nothing left to say."
Boosted by the new poll, the No campaign has embarked on a nationwide
publicity-campaign. A "krone car", bedecked with images of the Danish
currency is already touring the country. The Right-wing Danish People's
Party has doubled its share of popular support, becoming the country's major
opposition group, by campaigning against the euro using slogans such as
"Keep the krone - vote Danish."
Along with Britain, Denmark has traditionally been a reluctant participant
in European integration and a fierce opponent of federalist ambition. In
1992, the Danes caused a temporary crisis in EU affairs by voting against
the Maastricht Treaty, which laid the basis for monetary union. They signed
up a year later having been granted, like Britain, an EMU opt-out.
Forced to take desperate measures, the Yes campaigners are now resorting to
economic scare tactics. Government speeches are warning that interest rates
could rocket if Danes reject the euro in September, leading to crippling
mortgage rates for house buyers. But with unemployment at less than three
per cent and the National Debt to be paid off by 2010, few are taking such
threats seriously.
Ole Matheisen, a 43-year old teacher in Copenhagen, said: "We don't need the
euro. Our economy is getting on fine without it and it's clearer all the
time that the single currency is a step towards a European superstate, which
Danes have never wanted."
Soren Espersen, chief aide to Danish People's Party leader, Pia Kjaersgaard,
said: "I really don't see how the government can halt this momentum against
joining the euro. And if we Danes don't join, our German neighbours, already
hit with a weak currency, are going to be very frustrated. If the British
then follow our lead and stay out, I reckon the Germans will wish they were
outside too."
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